Friday, February 24, 2006
McCain looking good in another poll!
It is early but Senator McCain is looking great. The Marist College poll confirms what Gallup, Rasmussen and American Research Group have recently indicated. McCain has a double digit lead on Sen. Clinton. (2008 Presidential trial heats)
In other words, if the election were held today, McCain would win a landslide. He would win the popular vote:
McCain 55% Gore 38%
McCain 54% Kerry 37%
McCain 52% Clinton 42%
Let me add some perspective. Bush-41 won 54% in '88 and he carried 40 states or more than 400 Electoral votes. Bush-43 got 51% and won 31 states.
As of today, McCain could carry 40 states, which would be a major defeat for the Democrats, reminiscent of Dukakis '88!
Why is McCain doing so well and Sen. Clinton doing so poorly?
Let's look at McCain first. McCain is benefiting from the current events. The American people are concerned about national security and that's his strength. McCain has been one of Pres. Bush's most outspoken supporters on Iraq and the War on Terror.
Why is Clinton poorly? Same answer. The Democrats do not do well when the public is concerned about terrorists and national security. To be fair, Sen. Clinton has supported the war and has not joined the "Bush lied about WMDs" choir. Nevertheless, she is not viewed as a leader, which is what a post 9-11 election is all about.
Guliani is doing well, too. Again, the public associates him with leadership and strength.
All of this could change. Perot could run again. The Republicans could break into factions. Immigration and the border could spark a conservative challenge to the Republican nominee.
However, I don't think that it will. In fact, I think that there is a better chance of a Democrat civil war than a Perot. Besides, the 2008 Democrat primaries will be ugly and bloody with Gore and Kerry hitting Clinton from the left and Warner coming from the right.
Put me down as a McCain supporter in 2008! Is it too early to say Pres. McCain?
Posted by Silvio Canto, Jr. Post Link ---> 6:12 AM
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